In contrast to La Nina, which causes rain and floods and somewhat helps lower the Earth’s temperature, El Niño occurs when westward winds along the equator slow down and warm water is pushed eastward, causing the ocean surface temperature to warm up.

El Niño is not merely an isolated weather event, but a large-scale ocean–atmosphere phenomenon with global climatic influence. It is widely recognized as a major driver behind numerous extreme weather events worldwide, including record-breaking heatwaves, severe droughts, and abnormal flooding.

El Niño and Its Impacts

According to a press release from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) issued in March, the impacts of El Niño include:
Extreme weather changes: El Niño can cause droughts in some regions such as Southeast Asia, India, and Australia. Meanwhile, other areas such as South America, particularly along the coasts of Peru and Ecuador, experience heavy rainfall, causing floods.

During the 1997-1998 El Niño event, Peru saw rainfall 10 times the average, causing severe flooding, resulting in over $3 billion in damage and displacing more than 500,000 people.

Increased global temperatures: El Niño is often accompanied by an increase in average global temperatures, contributing to global warming in years when this phenomenon occurs. This warming and drought increase the risk of wildfires, leading to numerous environmental consequences.

During the 2015-2016 El Niño event, global temperatures reached record highs, making it the hottest year on record. The average global temperature increased by 0.86°C compared to the pre-industrial average. Approximately 18 million people in Southern Africa faced food shortages due to crop failures caused by the heatwave.
Impact on agriculture and fisheries: Changes in rainfall and temperature caused by El Niño can reduce agricultural yields in many areas, damaging crops.

Fisheries in regions such as South America were also affected due to reduced marine food sources. Warmer seawater caused by El Niño reduced seafood production, especially anchovies – a crucial export. In 1997, Peru’s fishing industry lost 25% of its global market share due to declining fish catches.

What Lies Ahead for Vietnam Amid the Increasing Complexity of El Niño?

As a country located in Southeast Asia, Vietnam is one of the countries heavily impacted by the El Niño phenomenon. Under the influence of El Niño and climate change, Vietnam faces two main scenarios: intense heatwaves and record water shortages (dry summers) and the unpredictable nature of alternating storms and floods (rainy seasons). 

Vietnam Experiences Its First Extended Heatwave in a Decade

Experts suggest that under El Niño conditions, temperatures across much of Vietnam are likely to rise above seasonal averages. Heatwaves are expected to become more frequent, prolonged, and intense, increasing the likelihood of new record-breaking temperatures across several regions of the country.

Over the past two weeks, Vietnam has experienced an intense nationwide heatwave, with temperatures ranging from 37–39°C and exceeding 41°C in parts of Central Vietnam. According to the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting, this is one of the most severe heatwaves recorded in the past decade, with some areas enduring extreme temperatures for more than 10 consecutive days.

From March 11 to April 10, average temperatures across Northern Vietnam and the region stretching from Thanh Hoa to Hue were approximately 2–4°C higher than the seasonal average.

Drought Conditions and the Risk of Extreme Rainfall

Although tropical storms and depressions may occur less frequently during El Niño periods, they can become more unpredictable in both intensity and path.

While El Niño is commonly associated with droughts, it can also trigger extreme rainfall events. Rising air and sea surface temperatures increase evaporation, causing large amounts of moisture to accumulate in the atmosphere. Under strong storm conditions, this excess moisture can lead to unusually heavy rainfall and severe weather events.

How El Niño Is Affecting the World Right Now

Coffee Market

Affected Countries: Brazil, Vietnam, Indonesia
El Niño continues to raise concerns across the global coffee industry, particularly in major robusta-producing countries such as Vietnam and Indonesia. In Southeast Asia, forecasts suggest that El Niño conditions may develop between July and December 2026, increasing fears of reduced robusta coffee output due to prolonged heat and dry weather conditions.
In Brazil, extreme weather linked to El Niño has also intensified concerns over future coffee supply, encouraging speculative buying activity in global markets. At the same time, declining coffee inventories on the ICE exchange over the past two months have continued to support rising prices.

Mango Market

Affected Country: India
In western India’s Maharashtra state, mango farmers are already experiencing the consequences of unusual weather conditions. Farmers reported that this year’s harvest of Alphonso mangoes — often referred to as the “King of Mangoes” — was severely damaged by rising temperatures.
According to local agricultural officials, large temperature fluctuations between day and night during December and January disrupted flowering and fruit formation. In addition, unusually high temperatures during April and May, potentially linked to El Niño conditions, further damaged the fruit and reduced yields across key growing regions.

Thailand’s Agricultural Market

Mr. Visit Limlurcha, Vice President of the Thai Chamber of Commerce and President of the Thai Future Food Trade Association, also agrees that the El Niño phenomenon will harm the agricultural sector.
According to Mr. Visit, the crops most likely to be severely affected by El Niño include rice, cassava, rubber trees, fodder corn, oil palm, and fruit trees. The serious impact of El Niño could severely affect sugar production in Thailand and India, as well as sugarcane harvesting in Brazil. Mr. Visit warns that all of this could lead to a sharp increase in global sugar prices.

Rice Market

Concerns over tightening supply, combined with the growing risk of El Niño and crop damage caused by heavy rainfall in Bangladesh, have pushed Asian rice export prices higher.

As of May 22, Vietnamese 5% broken rice was priced at approximately USD 410–415 per ton, while Thai rice prices ranged between USD 440–465 per ton. Meanwhile, some buyers shifted orders to India, where rice prices remained significantly lower at around USD 336–343 per ton.

The U.S. Climate Prediction Center estimates an 82% probability of El Niño developing between May and July 2026. Thai traders are increasingly concerned that dry conditions could reduce the next harvest season’s output.

At the same time, heavy pre-monsoon rainfall recently caused significant crop damage in Bangladesh, highlighting how quickly regional supply disruptions can influence global rice prices. Fearing future shortages, many importers and wholesalers have already begun increasing stockpiles, which may create additional price volatility even before actual supply shortages occur.

According to BMI Consultancy, the global wheat industry could become one of the sectors most heavily affected if El Niño intensifies. The greatest risks stem from overlapping crop cycles among major wheat-producing countries such as India, Pakistan, Australia, China, and Argentina.

In contrast, global corn production is expected to face relatively smaller impacts, while increased rainfall in parts of South America may support soybean production.

Meanwhile, China’s soybean imports from the United States more than doubled in April 2026 compared to the previous year, as shipments purchased after trade activity resumed late last year began arriving at Chinese ports.

Sunshine Group Still Maintains Supply Stability Through Reliable Farming Regions

In a climate environment where agricultural output is becoming increasingly unpredictable, diversified sourcing plays an important role in stabilizing overall supply availability. However, the real competitive advantage is no longer scale alone, it is consistent quality and reliable supply execution.

At Sunshine, rather than focusing only on output volume, we prioritize ensuring that every shipment meets consistent quality standards aligned with international market requirements by:

• Prioritization of GlobalG.A.P certified farms to ensure controlled cultivation practices and improved resilience under climate stress.
• Continuous monitoring of crop cycles and farming conditions for proactive sourcing decisions
• Flexible logistics and supply chain planning to maintain stable delivery performance and shipment consistency for international partners.

El Niño is becoming a structural challenge for global agriculture.In this environment, resilience is no longer optional. Agricultural suppliers must evolve from output-driven models to systems focused on quality assurance and supply chain stability.

Sunshine remains committed to strengthening certified sourcing networks, enhancing supply chain flexibility, and maintaining strict quality control standards, ensuring stable and reliable tropical fruit supply for international markets, even under increasingly volatile climate conditions.